International Trade Working Paper

The International Trade Working Paper series promptly documents and disseminates reviews, analytical work and think-pieces to facilitate the exchange of ideas and to stimulate debates and discussions on issues that are of interest to developing countries in general and Commonwealth members in particular. The issues considered in the papers may be evolving in nature, leading to further work and refinement at a later stage.


The Impact of India's Slowdown on the Commonwealth

India accounts for 26 per cent of intra-Commonwealth trade. The impact of its slowdown will be felt differently by Commonwealth countries depending on their economic links. This study uses GTAP analysis to assess the impact of India's GDP slowdown on Commonwealth countries in 2020. It finds that the negative effects on Commonwealth trade and investment are strongest for India's exports to LDCs and SSA, and India's imports from developed Commonwealth countries. In addition to GTAP, a qualitative assessment indicates the products and Commonwealth countries most likely to be affected by India's slowdown.


Keywords: intra-Commonwealth trade, exports, GDP slowdown, imports, India
JEL: F60: International Economics / Economic Impacts of Globalization / Economic Impacts of Globalization: General; F17: International Economics / Trade / Trade: Forecasting and Simulation; F44: International Economics / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance / International Business Cycles
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